An analytical multi-criteria framework for valuing mining usufruct rights based on the Delphi technique and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Determining mining usufruct rights is one of the key components in the valuation of mineral assets and has long been challenged by the multidimensional nature of the subject and the lack of comprehensive scientific frameworks. This study aimed to develop a systematic model for identifying, validating, and weighting the factors affecting the determination of the adjustment coefficient (F) in the valuation of mining usufruct rights. To this end, the Delphi technique was first employed to achieve expert consensus, resulting in the identification and validation of 9 main criteria and 44 sub-criteria through two iterative rounds. The statistical population consisted of 255 officially certified mining experts, among whom 101 qualified experts were selected based on their experience in mine appraisal and valuation, and 49 valid responses were ultimately obtained. Subsequently, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied using the judgments of 15 experts with extensive experience in mining valuation to determine the relative importance and ranking of the identified criteria. The results indicated that "Geology and Reserve Characteristics" was the most influential criterion in determining the F coefficient, with a weight of 0.251, followed by "Economic Indicators" (0.195) and "Technical and Productivity Factors" (0.180). Furthermore, comparison of the proposed model with the conventional empirical approach revealed that, in addition to incorporating the commonly used criteria, four new main criteria and 23 additional sub-criteria—including risks and uncertainties, engineering judgment, environmental considerations, and legal and managerial factors—were integrated into the valuation process. The obtained weights provide a systematic basis for calculating the adjustment coefficient (F), ensuring that all dimensions affecting the value of mining usufruct rights are considered. The novelty of this research lies in the integration of the Delphi technique and AHP to establish a structured and quantitative framework for determining the relative importance of factors affecting mining usufruct rights, a process that is traditionally based largely on expert judgment without a scientific weighting system. Consequently, one of the major gaps in mining usufruct valuation, namely the absence of a comprehensive and systematic model, has been addressed. Since the proposed framework was developed based on expert consensus and is not limited to a specific mine, it has the potential to be applied across a wide range of mining projects.