تاثیر شرایط محیطی بر قابلیت اطمینان تجهیزات معدن مطالعه موردی معدن مولیبدن-مس آذربایجان

نوع مقاله : یادداشت فنی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی معدن، نفت و ژئوفیزیک، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

2 کارشناس شرکت ملی مس ایران، واحد طراحی و نظارت معدن مس سونگون

10.22034/anm.2019.841

چکیده

در صنعتی مانند صنعت معدنکاری با محیط سخت و خشن نمی‌توان از تأثیر شرایط محیطی بر رفتار سیستم‌ها صرف‌نظر کرد، چرا که این موضوع اریبی شدید در نتایج تحلیل‌ها را به دنبال خواهد داشت. با این دیدگاه در این پژوهش تلاش شد تا قابلیت اطمینان سیستم لودر از معدن مولیبدن- مس آذربایجان با استفاده از نوعی مدل رگرسیونی معروف به مدل نرخ مخاطرات متناسب محاسبه شود. این مدل از دو تابع یکی بر اساس داده‌های زمانی و دیگری شامل شرایط محیطی (فاکتورهای ریسک) هست. داده‌های مورد نیاز از بانک داده 15 ماهه از منابع مختلف چون گزارش‌های روزانه، تعمیرگاه، گزارش‌های هواشناسی، ملاقات و مشاهده‌های مستقیم و مرتب‌شده بر اساس تاریخ وقوع در قالب زمان بین خرابی‌ها و فاکتورهای ریسک استخراج گردید. در نخستین گام برای تعیین تابع پایه نرخ مخاطره، آزمون‌های روند و خودهمبستگی برای ارزیابی فرض توزیع یکسان و مستقل داده‌ها مورد استفاده قرارگرفته و در نتیجه آن فرض رد شد. لذا روش‌های کلاسیک آماری برای تحلیل نامناسب بوده و مدل فرایند قانون‌ توانی جهت تحلیل‌ سیستم تعمیرپذیر مناسب است. در مرحله بعدی نیز ضرایب رگرسیون برای فاکتورهای ریسک با سطح تأثیر معناداری مشخص و با به‌کارگیری روش بازگشتی انجام گرفت. طبق نتایج حاصل از تحلیل فاکتورهای نوبت، محل کار، تناسب با دامپتراک، وضعیت آب و هوا، دمای محیط و وضعیت جاده دارای تأثیر معناداری بودند. در نتیجه آن قابلیت اطمینان لودر بر اساس تابع زمانی و شش فاکتور ریسک محاسبه شد. در نهایت نیز اختلاف حدوداً سه برابری بهره‌وری برای دو حالت تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان با در نظرگیری فاکتورهای ریسک و بدون آنها به دست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Operating Environment Based Reliability Analysis of Mining Equipment Case Study: Molybdenum-Copper Mine (Sungun Copper Mine)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou 1
  • Mohammad Ataei 1
  • Reza Khalokakaie 1
  • Saied Fatoorachi 2
  • Reza Barabady 1
1 Dept. of Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
2 Expert Technical Office of NICICO, Sungun, Iran
چکیده [English]

Summary
The proportional hazards model (PHM) that is a regression model was used to analyze the reliability of Komatsu 988 wheel loader system at Azerbaijan Molybdenum-Copper mine (Sungun Copper mine). Hazard rate in a system in PHM is the product of an arbitrary and unspecified baseline hazard rate, depending on time only, and a positive functional term, basically independent of time, incorporating the effects risk factors (covariates). The required data for PHM analysis were extracted from a database of 15 months, which collecting from different sources, such as daily reports, workshop reports, weather reports, meetings, and direct observations in format of time between failures and risk factors. At the first step, trend and serial correlation tests were used for evaluation of assumptions of independent and uniform distribution of data for determining base function of risk rate. The evaluation failed to show independency and uniform distribution. Therefore, power law process was used. In the next step, the regression coefficient of covariates were estimated. According to the results, shift, working place, proportionality of truck, weather conditions, temperature and road conditions have had a significant effect. Finally, the reliability of loaders based on the time and six risk factors was calculated, and analysis showed about three times alteration in productivity of analysis with the ignoring of risk factors compared with inserting them.
 
Introduction
The formal definition of reliability performance is ‘‘the ability of an item to perform a required function under given conditions for a given time interval’’. The ‘‘given conditions’’ are important keywords in the definition of the reliability performance concept and its related concepts. Given conditions can be such as the surrounding environment, conditions indicating parameters, the operating history of a machine, the skill of the operator or maintenance crew, etc. Thus, it is important that the statistical approach, which is used for reliability analysis, should be able to model the operational environment effect as the way it influences the failure process. There is a need for a careful and well-structured approach, access to all data and information, design and analysis tools, as well as effective design routines and procedures.
 
Methodology and Approaches
The aim of this paper is to assess the different operating environment conditions and their effect on the reliability as the two main goals. PHM was proposed in order to predict hazard rate and reliability considering the operating environment condition.
 
Results and Conclusions
The stated points in this section can be classified as follows:

The common parametric methods were reviewed
PHM for analyzing covariates is discussed
The application of this method is demonstrated using a real case study
The reliability analysis showed about three times alteration in productivity of analysis with the ignoring of risk factors compared with inserting them.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mining
  • Reliability
  • Risk Factors (covariates)
  • Proportional Hazards Model (PHM)

مراجع

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روش های تحلیلی و عددی در مهندسی معدن
دوره 9، شماره 18
اردیبهشت 1398
صفحه 129-141

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 30 آذر 1394
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 اردیبهشت 1395
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 آذر 1395

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