نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکده فارابی، دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران
2 دانشکده مهندسی معدن و متالورژی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Mining projects are considered one of the riskiest yet most profitable areas of investment in the world. The main source of these risks is related to the uncertainty present in geological models, geomechanical models, exploitation operations, mine geometry, crushing and processing, environmental factors, and the economic model, including fluctuations in the final product price and production costs. Improper management of mine production planning will lead to the wastage of natural resources. This research, using a portfolio of real options, seeks to find the best decision that maximizes mining profit. The titles of mining real options are shown in Figure1.
The study of this research focuses on the Sechahoon XI iron ore mine, with the aim of physical optimization of the final pit limit and optimization of management decisions in real options. Modeling in this research was carried out in two separate parts: first, the final pit limit of the studied open-pit mine was optimized and designed using the Lerchs-Grossmann method. Then, the real options model was used for mine valuation using the influence diagram, regression, and simulation method
Figure 2: the final pit limit in the base case scenario
For each of the three pits, four random factors (mineral price, mineral production cost, risk-free return rate, and welfare return rate) were simulated 100 times and used as inputs to the code prepared in GAMS software. The optimization was based on the integer programming method, using the CPLEX solver, and the path with the highest profit was selected from among 9 to the power of 94 decision paths. Table 2 shows the final profit obtained from optimizing the real options portfolio using the influence diagram, regression, and simulation method for the three designed final pit limits, in two situations: with and without the real options portfolio.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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